Breaking News

The South African Reserve Bank’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Review published on 22 April, notes that while inflation is currently at the new 3% target, the Iran–Hormuz shock has shifted the outlook higher. Headline CPI is forecast to rise towards 4% this year, but remain within the 2–4% band and return to target by late 2027. The repo rate stays at 6.75% for now, with risks tilted to the upside and markets pricing out earlier expectations of cuts. Read the full report here.

Editor’s Thoughts.

Yesterday’s CPI release showed inflation nudging up to 3.1% in March, still close to the SARB’s new 3% midpoint but with clear upside pressure building from higher oil and shipping costs linked to Middle East tensions. Catch Momentum’s insights into the CPI announcement under Top Picks.

Also released yesterday was the SARB’s April Monetary Policy Review (under Breaking News☝️) which delivered a consistent message: SARB now sees headline inflation drifting closer to 4% before easing back towards target, with rate cuts later and smaller than this Ed had hoped … and some economists now predicting a possible 0.25% increase in interest rates next month. Let’s not forget the upcoming May petrol price announcement, where the Finance Minister is already noting that the fuel levy relief granted to cushion the initial shock can’t be extended forever.

Come on already, when is the South African household budget finally going to catch a break?

On the flip side of the oil story, Ninety One’s Matt Christ and Deirdre Cooper share how elevated, volatile prices and even diesel shortages are becoming a structural tailwind for electrification and clean tech in emerging markets, where cost – not climate virtue – is driving adoption, from Chinese EVs and batteries to grids and renewables across Asia, LatAm and Africa. The year of the Fire Horse indeed.

But at least we can finally opt out of direct marketing (Bowmans).

PS Don’t let the economics distract you from enjoying the recording of yesterday’s webinar, where we unpacked tricky Section 37C death claims with the PFA, lawyers and service providers. Catch the recording here.

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