Sanusha Naidu, foreign policy analyst
Speculation is building about the possible outcome of the 7th national general election taking place on 29 May 2024. Some polls have indicated that the ANC’s share of vote in the upcoming election may fall below 50% for the first time since its initial post-apartheid electoral triumph in 1994, but this outcome is far from a ‘done deal.’ The 2024 elections will undoubtedly stand out as the country’s most unpredictable election since the dawn of democracy.
Speaking on this was Sanusha Naidu, foreign policy analyst and the most recent guest on PSG’s Think Big webinar – a series aimed at promoting open dialogue and stimulating critical engagement on some of the country’s most pressing issues. The conversation, led by award-winning journalist, Alishia Seckam, explored Naidu’s views on the possible outcome of the elections and what the future may hold for South Africa’s political system.
Naidu is a familiar face on local television, where she serves as a regular media commentator on national and international issues for major news agencies including Al-jazeera News, CCTV, BBC Radio, SABC, and CBS Africa. Naidu holds a Masters degree in International Relations from the University of Staffordshire, United Kingdom and is currently the Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue.
Referring to the election as a “gamble election,” Naidu claimed that although predictions indicate a decline in the ANC’s majority, now is not the time for opposition parties – or voters – to become complacent. This was in response to Seckam’s assertion that previous years have seen the ANC start an election with low polling numbers, only to see those numbers rise significantly in the last few days before the election. It stands to reason then, that the prospect of yet another ANC comeback cannot be ruled out.
In Naidu’s opinion, nothing can be taken for granted. “Parties cannot assume that their previous voters will come out in support of them this year. In fact, the trend has been that some previous party supporters, have withheld their votes at the polls. In many cases, these voters decided not to participate in the elections because they did not deem the opposition parties to be viable alternatives,” she said.
Taking a closer look at the ruling party’s stance going into the election, Naidu believes that the ANC’s biggest pitfall is its misconception that it cannot fail. To date, the ANC’s campaign has primarily focused on their role in guiding the country from the liberation struggle movement towards becoming a democratic nation. As the “ones who drove the engine of democratisation, the ANC does not fully comprehend the very real possibility of failure. They have not yet attuned themselves to the fact that there comes a moment in the history of any liberation struggle, where the tide begins to turn,” she added. “They’re not just dealing with the fact that they may no longer the ruling party in power, but they have to deal with their contentious opponents which are coming out of the party itself.”
With the decline in popular support for the current ruling party, the prospect of coalitions have become part of the public discourse. Much of the current debate is centered around the Multi-Party Charter (MPC), a pre-election agreement signed by several opposition parties including the Democratic Alliance, ActionSA and the Inkatha Freedom Party.
In principle, the MPC represents what is arguably the most viable pathway to a new national government. In practice however, “cracks have already begun to form in the way that the Charter members are interacting,” and clear divisions in terms of alliances and goals for certain wards and districts.
On the periphery, parties such as the Patriotic Alliance (PA) have been chipping away at the DA’s hold on the Western Cape, deepening its electoral footprint in some of these small towns by winning by-elections. The PA recently entered into an informal coalition with smaller, community-based parties, many of whom did not make it onto this year’s ballot papers.
By bringing these parties, which are outside of the electoral space, into the fold, the PA has succeeded in bolstering its support on the ground and potentially, on the ballot papers. Scenarios such as these, will add to the unpredictability of the election’s outcome.
As Naidu concluded: “There’s an interesting debate at the moment that the best coalition may be for the major players like the ANC and the DA to form a ‘dream coalition’ that will create an environment in which business and civil society can unite towards the common goal of revitalising the country. The greatest dilemma lies in the tendency of parties to chase an electoral win first, before considering any form of cooperation or collaboration. This ‘me first’ mentality has undermined the efficacy of coalition governance. These arrangements become even more complex at the Parliamentary level.
Whatever the outcome of the election is, what happens with the seats in parliament is going to have a far-reaching impact on how South Africa moves forward, as this is where legislation is passed. Ultimately, this will reflect in terms of the country’s ability to attract the business confidence and investment, as we need to begin our journey of socioeconomic recovery.”
ENDS
