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Economic Data Update – Consumer Price Inflation


Highlights

  • Headline consumer price inflation rose to 3.2% year on year in January 2021 from 3.1% in December 2020, slightly short of market expectations.

  • Core inflation was unchanged at 3.3% year on year in January 2021 on the back of the ongoing weakness in domestic demand and the pricing power of corporates.

  • We expect inflation to average 3.8% and 4.0% in 2021 and 2022, below the South African Reserve Bank’s 4.5% mid-point target.

  • Monetary policy will likely remain unchanged until the fourth quarter of 2022.


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