Hylton Kallner, CEO of Discovery Bank
Yesterday Discovery Bank and Visa released the findings of SpendTrend26, the fourth annual edition of their joint report on consumer spending behaviour, looking at spend nationally as well as across seven major South African cities. Combining Visa’s extensive dataset insights with Discovery Bank’s analytical expertise, the report incorporates analysis on 2.6 billion credit card transactions across 12 million cards between 2021 and 2025, to examine how much South African consumers spend, what they spend on, how they spend, and – for the first time – when they spend.
For the second year running, the transaction analysis is paired with the SpendTrend26 South African Consumer Survey of credit card holders earning above R100,000 per year. This year’s survey captures perspectives on cash use, digital payments, subscription management, banking fraud, AI use, online betting, and health spend.
Hylton Kallner, CEO of Discovery Bank, says, “Four rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank in 2025 brought the prime lending rate down from 11.25% to 10.25%, and for the first time since 2022, consumer spending grew above inflation – by 0.8 percentage points. The more important story, though, is behavioural. Rather than using that relief for additional discretionary spend, households are using rewards, budgeting tools and value-seeking strategies to stretch what they already have. This is discipline, not distress – and it gives us cautious optimism for how South Africans will respond to the pressures 2026 brings.”
Kallner points to travel as an example. “Travel spending rebounded across every income segment in 2025, and Discovery Bank clients made 18% more travel transactions than the average South African, largely made possible by their rich travel rewards.”
Kallner also highlighted the emerging role of AI in the shopping journey – and how consumers are responding to fraud. “40% of surveyed South Africans now use an AI tool weekly to decide what to buy, where to buy it, or whether to buy at all – rising to 50% among 18-to-30-year-olds. Among those using AI, 42% found a cheaper alternative, 35% switched brand or retailer, and 35% avoided a purchase because of risk concerns. And 32% are now using AI itself as a fraud defence – asking it to check whether a message or link looks suspicious. We are seeing material benefits from embedding AI tools and functionality into almost every area of Discovery Bank, for example our TRUST Alert, an AI risk score applied to every transaction, has cut confirmed fraud on flagged transactions by an estimated 85%.”
This year’s Consumer Survey also probed two fast-moving areas: online betting, and the use of prescribed weight-management medications including GLP-1 therapies.
“On online betting, 46% of surveyed South Africans who bet say they are spending less than they were 12 months ago – while 24% say more. 43% set a budget and stick to it, 46% bet mostly for entertainment, 44% do so around major sporting events, and 7% have reduced other entertainment spend to fund betting. These are self-reported figures, but they align to what we’ve seen internally in our own analysis. The societal trend is concerning but they tell us that for a large portion of those Discovery Bank clients who bet, it is happening inside a managed budget, not outside it. On the health side, 14% of respondents say they or someone in their household uses a prescribed weight-management medication – including GLP-1 therapies such as semaglutides. Among those respondents, encouragingly 59% say they are spending more on healthier foods, 48% less on takeaways and restaurants, 45% less on alcohol, and 38% less on groceries overall. That is a meaningful spillover into adjacent categories, and one that food retailers, restaurants and alcohol brands should be watching,” says Kallner.
Presenting the payments and global lens, Lineshree Moodley, Country Head of Visa South Africa, says, “Visa operates in over 200 markets worldwide, which gives us a unique perspective on how consumer behaviour is evolving across very different economic and social conditions. And what is striking when we look at South Africa in that global context is this: we are not behind the digital shift. In fact, on several dimensions, we are genuinely world‑class — defined by how quickly we adapt, how confidently we adopt, and how effectively we leapfrog. SpendTrend26 shows a clear step change in behavioural confidence. South Africans are increasingly choosing digital first when it is available, trusted and widely accepted — not because they have to, but because it works better for how they live, spend and manage risk.”
Moodley also introduced one of the new elements in this year’s report: a view of when South Africans spend: “Rather than spreading discretionary spend evenly, South Africans are actively planning around known moments in the calendar — concentrating spend into periods that feel familiar, expected and worth prioritising. As a result, discount periods, long weekends, celebration days and major sports events consistently lift daily spend by an average of 13.6%, with Black Friday remaining the most significant event in the spending calendar.”
On security, Moodley flagged social engineering as the biggest risk the industry is watching in 2026. “While digital fraud rates are coming down due to better controls, fraudsters are increasingly relying on social engineering tactics that exploit urgency, trust and familiarity. Encouragingly, consumers are adapting quickly, showing greater awareness, stronger authentication preferences, and a growing ability to spot red flags.”
10 key findings from SpendTrend26
1. Spending edges past inflation. In 2025, consumer spending grew 0.8 percentage points above inflation for the first time since 2022, signalling a cautious but meaningful recovery. Four interest rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank eased debt-servicing costs and freed up household income. Rather than increasing discretionary spend, households are using rewards, budgeting tools and value-seeking strategies to stretch their spending.
2. Consumers are strategic and value-led on essentials. South Africans continue to prioritise essentials while adopting more value-driven behaviours – bulk buying, price comparisons, increased use of store brands, and active rewards engagement. Everyday food spending is shifting online, while dining-out and takeaway frequency are declining alongside a rise in home cooking, especially among millennials.
3. Travel rebounds, and ride-hailing gains momentum. Travel spending rebounded in 2025 across all income groups. Value for money has overtaken relaxation as the top trip-planning factor. Fuel spending remained stable but grew more slowly, while ride-hailing usage is increasing faster than fuel spend, particularly among younger consumers. Electric vehicle adoption is growing but remains small, with EV charging accounting for less than 0.5% of total fuel payments.
4. Small treats remain protected as budgets tighten. South Africans continue to prioritise small treats, reflecting mindful rather than reckless spending. Coffee purchases grew slightly in frequency and significantly in spend per purchase, reinforcing its role as a protected everyday ritual. Eating out and takeaways remain the most common treats; payday, discounts and the feeling of having earned a reward are the leading triggers.
5. Cryptocurrency shifts from speculation to disciplined, steady investing. Mobile-first platforms have lowered entry barriers, especially for younger consumers. VisaNet data shows a shift from large, irregular trades toward smaller, more consistent purchases – signalling longer-term portfolio behaviour. Growth in transaction frequency is notable among middle-income groups.
6. Online sports betting overtakes in-person gambling spend. Online sports betting now accounts for the majority of total gambling spend in South Africa. Among surveyed consumers who bet, more than half do so exclusively online. The behaviour is often event-driven, with many consumers setting and managing budgets deliberately.
7. Prescribed weight-management medicine emerges as a new health spending category. Health and wellness remain a major spending priority – supplements, fitness, weight-management support and cosmetic procedures all feature. Among surveyed South Africans (credit card holders earning above R100,000 a year), 16% report spending on dieticians or weight-loss clinics, and 14% on prescribed weight-loss medications including GLP-1 therapies. Among the households using these medications, budgets are being meaningfully reshaped across healthier foods, takeaways and alcohol.
8. Digital payments become the default as consumers stay vigilant against fraud. 94% of surveyed South Africans prefer card or digital payments; 85% hold a virtual card and 73% actively use one. Digital wallets account for 30% of in-store transactions nationally. As fraud threats evolve, consumers are adapting – 97% scrutinise messages before clicking any link, and 54% use virtual cards for new online merchants. Cash remains relevant for taxis, tipping, and situations where digital acceptance is limited.
9. AI reshapes shopping decisions and the subscription economy. 40% of South Africans now use AI tools weekly to inform purchase decisions – mainly for price comparison, product research and deal-finding. AI subscription payment volumes grew 125% in 2025, becoming a significant category alongside e-commerce and streaming. Streaming’s share of the subscription mix moved from 67% in 2023 to 11% in 2025 as consumers shifted from passively accumulating subscriptions to actively managing them.
10. Events and celebrations are a key driver of big spending. South African spend is strongly influenced by events – Black Friday, long weekends, celebrations and major sports matches. Black Friday drives a 57% uplift and now behaves as a month-long cycle, with appliances at +108%. Long weekends lift spend by 14%, with the April–May holiday cluster the strongest of the year. Celebrations drive a 15% uplift, with Valentine’s Day lifting spend at florists by 277%. Sporting events increase daily spend by 12%, concentrated in telecoms, refreshments and lodging.
Looking ahead to 2026
SpendTrend26 closes with five forward-looking trends:
1. Global energy disruptions are expected to lift fuel and food costs, intensifying value-seeking behaviours.
2. Global trade shifts and tariff pressures are likely to weigh on consumer confidence and the cost of imported goods, and may slow the pace of further interest-rate relief.
3. Health-conscious spending will continue to reshape grocery, dining and wellness budgets.
4. Digital commerce and AI-assisted decision-making will become the default for value-conscious consumers.
5. Event-led spending – such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup™ (11 June to 19 July 2026) – will drive material peaks in discretionary spend.
The full SpendTrend26 report, including all findings and 2026 predictions from Visa and Discovery Bank, is available for download.
* The survey findings reflect responses from higher‑income South Africans earning R100,000 or more per year
ENDS
