Alan Wood, Head: Investment Consulting at Simeka Consultants and Actuaries

For Simeka’s Markets at a Glance, showing performance statistics of the various indices to 31 January 2026, click here.

Global:

• The IMF projects global growth in 2026 to remain resilient at 3.3%, supported by technology investment and accommodative financial conditions though ongoing geopolitical risks remain. US Q3 2025 GDP growth exceeded expectations, registering 4.4% compared with the consensus forecast of 4.3%.

• A raft of geopolitical events dominated headlines in January, including the arrest of the Venezuelan president, unrest in Iran, renewed US warnings about Greenland’s strategic importance, and the resurfacing of global trade tensions.

• Despite the volatility and final trading day rout, global equities powered ahead over the month: The MSCI World gained 2.3% (USD) and the MSCI Emerging Markets surged 8.8% (USD) as investors rotated into risk assets and diversified away from US‑centric exposure.

• The US dollar (DXY Index) weakened by 1.4%, with safe‑haven demand pushing gold higher (up 13.3% m/m), though intra-month, gold hit $5,600 an ounce to under $5,000 within quick succession.  At the time of writing on 2 February 2026, Gold had sold off to a price of around $4,700. Some market commentators have attributed this sell off to the nomination of Kevin Warsh, as the next Fed Chairman. He is widely expected to keep US interest rates higher, bringing some support for the USD. Oil prices firmed from $60.85 to $69.32 (a rise of 13%), amid tensions involving key oil producing nations.

• The US Federal Reserve held rates steady, citing economic improvement and signalling a cautious approach to future policy moves. US inflation printed at 2.7% y/y.

Local (South Africa):

• Inflation edged up to 3.6% y/y, remaining above the SARB’s new 3% ± 1% target band. The average inflation rate during 2025 was 3.2%. The SARB kept rates unchanged, noting heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The SARB is however investigating the 3.5% rate differential between the prime and repo rate.

• Despite the late-month volatility, equity markets delivered very strong gains, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index up 3.7% m/m, propelled by the precious-metal rally, with Sibanye Stillwater and Glencore climbing by 22%, and 20.6%, respectively. Laggards include Naspers and Prosus, down by 10.2% and 9.1%, respectively. One-year performance for the FTSE/JSE All Share Index has returned a phenomenal 44.35% (ZAR), driven by resource counters, far outpacing the MSCI World of 20% (USD).

• The FTSE/JSE ALBI continued its upward trajectory, rising 1.9% m/m, supported by lower yields and well‑anchored inflation expectations.

• The rand appreciated by 2.5% against the USD over the month (from 16.56 to 16.14), supported by a softer dollar, stronger precious‑metal prices, and improved domestic sentiment. Intra‑month, the rand strengthened to around 15.6/USD before retreating to just above 16/USD toward month‑end amid escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran.

ENDS