John Manyike, Head of Financial Education at Old Mutual

While global geopolitical tensions may feel distant, their financial impact is hitting South Africans closer to home than many realise. From rising fuel prices to mounting inflationary pressure, experts are warning consumers about what is increasingly being described as the “unseen tax” on everyday living.

According to John Manyike, Head of Financial Education at Old Mutual, global instability is quietly eroding household budgets in ways many consumers’ underestimate.

“South Africans are engaging in conversations about global tensions around the braai, often in a casual way, but what many don’t realise is that these events have a direct and measurable impact on their personal finances. This is what we refer to as the unseen or silent tax,” Manyike warns.

South Africa’s integration into global economic structures such as the G20 and BRICS brings both opportunity and vulnerability. While participation strengthens the country’s global standing, it also exposes consumers to the ripple effects of international disruptions, particularly in energy markets.

Recent oil supply interruptions linked to the war in the Middle East have already driven sharp increases in global fuel prices. In response, the Government of South Africa has introduced a temporary R3 per litre reduction in the general fuel levy from 1 April to 5 May 2026 to cushion consumers. However, this relief is limited, and South Africans faced sharp petrol and diesel price increases in April, with prices set to rise further in May.

“While the intervention provides short-term breathing room, it does not remove the underlying pressure, and there is a real risk that the relief we see now could translate into higher inflation or interest rate pressure later when the levy is reinstated,” explains Manyike.

For consumers, the implications are immediate and personal, says Izak Odendaal, investment strategist at Old Mutual Wealth. Rising transport costs will also feed into the prices of goods and services more broadly. “However, it depends on the extent to which businesses absorb those costs or pass them on to consumers,” argues Odendaal. When the costs are passed on, it will tighten already strained household budgets and reduce disposable income. Of particular concern is that fertilizer supplies have also been interrupted by the war, which could put upward pressure on food prices. “While central banks are approaching this global supply shock cautiously given the uncertainty, they could raise interest rates if they see inflationary pressures broadening out beyond fuel prices,” says Odendaal. This could happen in South Africa too, although it is too soon to say. He says that the South African Reserve Bank can probably afford to be patient in assessing the situation, given that inflation was on target at 3% in February before the war, while its policy interest rate was due to fall from an elevated level. Ultimately, he says, it all depends on how long the conflict lasts, disrupting supplies and keeping energy prices elevated. It also depends on how the rand-dollar exchange rate responds. While it fell somewhat when the war broke out, it has been relatively stable compared to previous global crises. Manyike urges South Africans to take the following 4 proactive steps to safeguard their financial wellbeing during this period of uncertainty:

1. Build or strengthen your emergency fund

If you don’t already have an emergency fund, start building one as a matter of urgency. Even small, consistent contributions can make a meaningful difference over time. This financial buffer is critical for helping you absorb unexpected shocks, such as rising fuel costs, higher interest rates, or in helping you absorb unexpected shocks, such as rising fuel costs, higher interest rates, or sudden expenses without relying on credit.

2. Eliminate unnecessary spending

Take a close, honest look at your monthly budget and identify areas of non-essential spending. Subscriptions, impulse purchases, and lifestyle expenses can quietly erode your financial stability. Cutting these out completely, even temporarily, can free up cash to strengthen your financial position during uncertain times.

3. Postpone discretionary purchases

Now is not the time for big, non-essential financial commitments. Consider delaying planned expenses such as holidays, new electronics, home upgrades, or vehicle purchases. Preserving liquidity and maintaining flexibility in your finances will place you in a stronger position as economic conditions evolve.

4. Avoid taking on additional debt

In a rising cost environment, additional debt can quickly become difficult to manage, especially if interest rates increase further. Focus instead on maintaining or reducing your current debt levels. Taking on new financial obligations now could limit your ability to respond to future financial pressure.

Manyike further emphasises the importance of working closely with a financial adviser. “These decisions should not be made in isolation. A financial adviser will help ensure that any adjustments you make remain aligned with your long-term financial plan and goals”.

Odendaal adds that many people might also be worried about how the war in the Middle East will impact their retirement savings. The good news is that while markets have been volatile, they have performed better than most people would’ve expected. “In these unsettling times, it is another reminder of why we always say ‘time in the markets, not timing the markets’,” says Odendaal. “Do not base your investment strategy on news headlines and definitely not on social media posts,” he adds, pointing out that in most cases, a person’s investment strategy should not change in response to market conditions, but rather to changes in their personal circumstances. Financial advisers are best placed to help guide you through these decisions.

5. Switch to affordable brands

According to Old Mutual Savings and investments monitor, many South Africans switch to cheaper supermarkets and affordable brands to cope with the rising cost of living. Some are cutting back on subscription television, others are exploring streaming options.

Move from being a passive observer to an active planner

With no clear timeline on how long geopolitical tensions will persist, and with the possibility that economic effects may linger long after conflicts subside, Manyike cautions against complacency.

“The risk is not just what is happening now, but what could follow,” Manyike says, adding that “consumers need to move from being passive observers of global events to active participants in their own financial resilience”.

He adds further that taking action early can prevent more severe consequences later. “It is far better to make controlled sacrifices now than to be forced into reactive decisions, such as taking on debt just to cope. That can create long-term financial strain that outlasts the current crisis”.

As headlines of global geopolitical tensions continue to dominate daily conversations, Manyike encourages South Africans to shift the discussion from the braai to a meeting with their financial advisers.

“The unseen tax is already here, but the real question is whether consumers are prepared to respond to it in a way that protects their financial future,” Manyike says.

ENDS