Alan Wood, Head: Investment Consulting at Simeka Consultants and Actuaries

For Simeka’s Markets at a Glance, showing performance statistics of the various indices to 28 February 2026, click here.

Global:

• President Trump’s threats of military action against Iran earlier in the month culminated in an attack on 28 February, heightening tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices rose 5.1% over the month from USD 69.32 to USD 72.87 per barrel and have since firmed to around USD 80 amid concerns over potential disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This situation is fluid and has created heightened uncertainty in the market.

• US trade policy uncertainty remained elevated after a 6-3 ruling by the US Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s reciprocal import tariffs; however, President Trump subsequently introduced a flat 15% tariff on trading partners, for 150 days.

• Emerging market equities continued to outperform developed markets. Valuation concerns triggered a pullback in developed market equities, particularly within the technology and software sector. Against this backdrop, the MSCI World Index rose by 0.95% m/m (USD), despite a 0.9% decline in the S&P 500 (USD), while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced a strong 6.0% m/m (USD).

• US economic growth slowed materially, with Q4 2025 GDP growth recorded at 1.4% (annualised), well below expectations of 2.8%. The slowdown reflected reduced government spending during the federal shutdown and softer consumer demand. For the full year, the US economy expanded by 2.2% in 2025.

• The US dollar strengthened modestly, with the DXY index rising 0.6% as investors rotated towards safe-haven assets. Gold prices benefitted, increasing by 4.8% m/m.
• US inflation continued to ease, declining to 2.4% in January 2026 from 2.7% in the prior two months, marking its lowest reading since May 2025.

Local (South Africa):

• Labour market conditions showed a slight improvement, with the unemployment rate declining to 31.4% in Q4 2025 from 31.9% in Q3. Gains were supported by job creation in the community and social services as well as the construction sectors.

• Headline inflation edged lower, easing to 3.5% y/y in January, largely driven by transport deflation. Inflation nevertheless remains slightly above the SARB’s 3% ±1% target band.

• The national budget was positively received by markets. National Treasury forecasts real GDP growth at 1.6% for 2026, accelerating to 2.0% by 2028, while government debt is expected to peak at 78.9% of GDP in 2025/26 before gradually declining. Many market commentators are highlighting that there is potential for upside in GDP growth, simply if the milestones in Project Vulindlela are achieved or are accelerated.  National Treasury continues to prioritise infrastructure investment across key sectors, with the strong oversubscription of its 2025 infrastructure bonds reflecting growing interest from retirement funds.

• Local financial markets extended their strong performance. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index rose 7.0% m/m, while the ALBI gained 1.7%. Resources led the advance, with AngloGold Ashanti outperforming (+30.3%), while Naspers (-10.7%) and Prosus (-11.6%) lagged for a second consecutive month. Over the past year, the ALSI delivered an exceptional 54.5% return in rand terms, significantly outperforming the MSCI World’s 22.1% return in US dollar terms.

• The rand strengthened by 1.3% m/m, appreciating from 16.14 to 15.94, supported by improved sentiment following the budget, although at the time of writing, it has since weakened to around 16.15 amid heightened Middle East tensions.

ENDS