Alan Wood, Head: Investment Consulting at Simeka Consultants and Actuaries

For Simeka’s Markets at a Glance, showing performance statistics of the various indices to 30 April 2026, click here.

Global:

• While the Strait of Hormuz remained closed and diplomatic efforts to resolve the Iran conflict ultimately stalled, the extension of the Middle East ceasefire reduced tail risks and encouraged a rotation into risk assets, with global markets rebounding strongly in April and reversing March’s weakness.

• Emerging markets led the rally, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 14.5% (USD), driven by strong AI‑related growth across Asia. Developed markets also posted solid gains, underpinned by resilient corporate earnings, with the MSCI World rising 9.6% (USD).

• Oil prices remained elevated amid tight global supply and geopolitical risk, rising 13.5% over the month to USD 118.03 per barrel from USD 103.97. At the time of writing, prices had eased to around USD 107. Adding to supply‑side uncertainty, the United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC, underscoring growing tensions with Saudi Arabia over production policy and regional influence.

• US economic data pointed to a modest rebound in activity. Real GDP growth accelerated to 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, below the 2.3% consensus expectation but a marked improvement from 0.5% in Q4 2025, supported by solid government, business and consumer spending.

• Inflationary pressures, however, re‑emerged, with US headline inflation rising to 3.3% year‑on‑year, the highest level since May 2024, largely driven by higher energy prices. Eurozone inflation similarly increased to 3.0%, reflecting the same energy‑related pressures.

• The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England all kept policy rates unchanged, although the Fed decision featured notable dissent. Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that he will remain a governor once his term as chair concludes.

• The US labour market showed signs of gradual cooling, with the unemployment rate edging down to 4.3%, partly due to lower labour force participation rather than renewed strength.

Local (South Africa):

• Local asset classes lagged global markets but still delivered modest gains, with bonds outperforming equities. The FTSE/JSE All Bond Index rose 3.3%, supported by lower yields and contained inflation expectations. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index returned 1.6%, while listed property was the standout performer, advancing 5.4% as declining bond yields provided support.

• Over a 12‑month period, SA equities remain strong, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index up 30.1% in Rand terms. This compares favourably with the MSCI World’s 29.7% return in USD terms, or 17.3% in Rand terms.

• The Rand remained resilient, strengthening modestly by 0.6% against the US Dollar to 16.83 from 16.94, supported by improving global risk appetite and contained domestic inflation.

• Headline inflation edged up to 3.1%, but the data was recorded before the recent energy shock had filtered through. As a result, economists expect a fuel‑driven uptick in inflation in the near term, although this is widely viewed as a temporary shock rather than a deterioration in underlying inflation dynamics.

• National Treasury extended the fuel levy relief, offering short‑term support to consumers and businesses in the face of elevated oil and energy prices.

• The medium-term monetary policy outlook remains uncertain amid fluid Middle East tensions, elevated stagflation risks and fragile global growth. However, markets are pricing in a pause on interest rates at the May SARB meeting.

ENDS