Alan Wood, Head: Investment Consulting at Simeka Consultants and Actuaries

For Simeka’s Markets at a Glance, showing performance statistics of the various indices to 31 March 2026, click here.

Global:

• Global markets experienced heightened volatility in March amid escalating military conflict in the Middle East region. As a result, oil prices surged by 42.7% over the month, rising from USD 72.87 per barrel to USD 103.97, following major disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil supply passes.

• Risk assets sold off sharply, with the MSCI World Index declining 6.3% m/m (USD) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling 13.3% m/m (USD). Global bonds also weakened, though to a lesser extent, with the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index down 3.4% m/m (USD).

• Gold declined 12.8% despite its defensive characteristics, because of an expectation of higher interest rates in future, while the US dollar strengthened (DXY Index 2.4%) as a preferred safe haven.

• US headline inflation remained stable at 2.4% y/y; however, sustained geopolitical conflict and its impact on oil markets, will likely see US inflation rise toward the 3-4% range.

• Major developed market central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank left policy rates unchanged. The US Federal Reserve signalled only one rate cut in 2026, tempering expectations for near‑term monetary easing, while other central banks have flagged the possibility of rate increases.

• The US unemployment rate edged slightly higher to 4.4% (from 4.3%), pointing to modest softening in labour market conditions.

Local (South Africa):

• Local markets weakened in line with global trends. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) declined by 10.5%, while the FTSE/JSE All Bond Index (ALBI) fell 6.8%. The resources sector was particularly volatile, declining 16.5% over the month. Harmony Gold Mining fell 28.7% amid the gold pullback, while Sasol gained 55.1% amid higher oil prices.

• Despite the March pullback, the ALSI remains up 33.6% over the past year in rand terms, outperforming the MSCI World Index, which returned 19.4% in US dollar terms (26.9% in ZAR terms).

• The rand weakened substantially over the month, depreciating 6.3% from R15.94 to R16.94 against the US dollar amid heightened global risk aversion.

• Headline inflation eased further to 3.0% y/y, while the SARB unanimously kept interest rates unchanged, citing risks arising from the global oil price shock and a weaker rand. These factors drove up transport costs, with petrol prices, after government subsidies increasing by around R3 per litre and diesel by over R7 per litre, effective from 1 April 2026.

• The SARB raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.7% while keeping GDP growth unchanged at 1.4%, citing higher oil prices as a near‑term upside risk to inflation. For 2027, it forecasts modest GDP growth of 1.9% as reforms gain traction, with inflation easing to 3.3%, closer to the 3±1% target.

• South Africa recorded its strongest economic growth in three years in 2025, with GDP expanding by 1.1%, supported by improved activity in agriculture, trade, and financial services.

ENDS