Alan Wood, Head: Investment Consulting at Simeka Consultants & Actuaries

For Simeka’s full Markets at a Glance, showing performance statistics of the various indices to 30 September 2026, click here.

Global:

• Oil prices rose sharply as Middle East tensions escalated, increasing from $98 to $113 a barrel over the month, a rise of 15.7%.

• US inflation increased to 3.7%, from 3.4%, while the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged.

• The US 10-year government bond yield climbed to about 5.3% early in the month, its highest level since 2002, before easing to about 4.9% by month-end.

• Gold fell below $4,000 an ounce, declining 6.3% over the month.

• Global developed equity markets were slightly weaker. The MSCI World fell 0.8% and the S&P 500 0.9% in US dollar terms. Technology shares came under greater pressure, with the Nasdaq falling around 5.3%, as investors became more cautious about the scale of AI-related spending and the ultimate return that will come from this investment.

• Emerging markets were significantly weaker in the month, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling 8.1% in US dollar terms. Brazil and South Korea were among the weaker markets. Over the past 12 months, developed markets have slightly outperformed emerging markets, returning 12.5% compared with 11.8%.

• China’s economy grew by 4.5% (annualised) in the third quarter, slightly better than expected but towards the lower end of the government’s 4.5% to 5.0% target range.

• In France, protests over the rising cost of living turned violent in some areas, while concerns about government finances pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels in decades.

Local (South Africa):

• Inflation edged up to 4.5%, from 4.4%, but was lower than expected. Higher fuel prices remained an important contributor to inflation.

• The Medium-Term Budget was generally well received by investors. The 2026 growth forecast was lowered to 1.2%, from 1.6%, partly reflecting the impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict. Government debt is expected to peak at 78.4% of GDP, while tax revenue benefited from higher commodity prices.

• Government also announced temporary fuel levy relief for November and December of R3.00 a litre on diesel and R1.50 a litre on petrol, providing some relief to households and businesses.

• South African equities declined modestly during the month but held up better than broader emerging markets. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index fell 0.4%, while the FTSE/JSE All Bond Index gained 2.1%. Resources fell 9.1%, while Financials gained 3.7%.

• Over the past 12 months, South African equities returned 2.5% and bonds 12.3% in rand terms. The stronger performance from bonds highlights the benefit of diversification when equity markets are subdued.

• The rand weakened by around 1.7% against the US dollar, from R16.42 to R16.71, as the stronger dollar weighed on emerging-market currencies.

ENDS