Alan Wood, Head: Investment Consulting at Simeka Consultants and Actuaries

For Simeka’s Markets at a Glance, showing performance statistics of the various indices to 30 November 2025, click here.

Asset class investment performance

• November 2025 was another strong month for local listed equities, driven by resources as well as listed property shares.
• Local bonds delivered stellar performance. SA bonds have generated a return of more than 20% over the 12 months ended 30 November 2025.
• Industrials and financials sold off during the month. Both Prosus and Naspers gave up a significant portion of their 2025 gains, off the back of a sell-off in Chinese tech stocks during the month.
• Emerging market equities sold off too, largely driven by some risk-off sentiment and a sell-off in Chinese listed equities.
• The S&P 500 Index ended the month basically at the same level as at the start of the month, but there was significant volatility during the month, especially in US listed tech stocks.
• A key question on investors minds is the extent to which the large US listed artificial intelligence (AI) stocks have run ahead of themselves and are in bubble territory. 45% of the global fund managers (as per the Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey) consider an “AI bubble” as their largest tail risk.
• It seems that this concern is gaining some momentum, so we will have to watch this theme closely.
• Despite some concern about global stock valuations (especially US stocks), fund managers remain bullish on risk assets (especially listed equities) going into 2026.
• SA listed equity forward valuations are well below their long-term averages. As long as high earnings expectations come through, we should see strong returns from SA listed equities in 2026. SA fund managers are bullish on SA listed equities.

GDP growth, inflation and interest rates

• Global GDP growth remains robust.
• Inflation globally remains subdued (although more sticky in the US than in many other countries around the world), even though above target in some countries.
• South Africa’s inflation target going forward will be 3%, replacing the previous target band of 3% to 6%.
• The longest US government shutdown in history finally ended on 12 November 2025 after lasting 43 days.
• The market has downgraded its expectation of a rate cut in the US in December 2026. However, rate cuts are expected to return in 2026, despite the risk of higher inflation.
• Investors were pleased with the local Medium Term Budget Policy Statement and the long-awaited sovereign credit rating upgrade by S&P.
• The SA Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee cut interest rates by 0.25% in November 2025, and further reductions are anticipated in 2026.

ENDS