Alan Wood, Head: Investment Consulting at Simeka Consultants & Actuaries

For Simeka’s full Markets at a Glance, showing performance statistics of the various indices to 31 August 2026, click here.

Global:

• US CPI slowed for a second month from 3.5% to 3.4%, as the impact of the energy price shock caused by the Middle East conflict continued to ease.

• Despite this improvement, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address reignited interest rate-hike expectations, as he reminded investors that inflation remains well above the 2% target, keeping a potential rate hike on the table.

• US debt passed the $40 trillion mark, fuelling volatility in global bond markets and renewed concerns over the US dollar’s safe-haven status.

• Against this backdrop of a growing debt burden, investors rotated out of the US dollar and into gold, which rose over 12% during the month to near the $4,500 an ounce mark.

• Middle East ceasefire talks continued through the month, though with no clear resolution in sight, and oil ended at $90 a barrel, a rise of 2.9% over the month.

• Despite this volatility, market sentiment was “risk-on” with earnings remaining robust: the MSCI World and S&P 500 both rose 2.6%, with the S&P 500 reaching a mid-month all-time high, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index outperformed with a 3.2% return (all in USD), supported by a weaker dollar and continued AI and tech demand in Asia. Over the past 12 months, the MSCI World Index has returned 20.8% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index 36.6% (both in USD), with emerging markets remaining comfortably ahead.

Local (South Africa):

• Gold’s rally was felt close to home too, lifting local equity markets alongside the improving inflation backdrop.

• Inflation cooled for the first time in five months, easing from 5.0% to 4.3%, driven mainly by softer food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, smaller municipal tariff increases, and lower fuel prices.

• This likely strengthens the case for the Reserve Bank to hold interest rates at 7% at its September meeting while it assesses the potential fallout from the Middle East conflict.

• While inflation improved, the unemployment rate rose to 33.6% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 32.7% – the highest level since 2022.

• SA equities, measured by the FTSE/JSE ALSI, rose 4.6%, boosted by the resources sector, which climbed 26.4% – with gold counters leading the charge, as AngloGold Ashanti alone rose over 40%, while laggards included Naspers, which fell 9%. The FTSE/JSE ALBI delivered a steady 0.7%, while property lagged with a return of -3.8%. On a 12-month basis, the FTSE/JSE ALSI returned 18.4%, well ahead of the MSCI World’s 10.2% in rand terms.

• The rand strengthened meaningfully by 2.7% against the US dollar, moving from R16.56 to R16.12, briefly dipping below the critical R16.00 level intra-month, as dollar weakness combined with the softer local inflation print to support the currency.

ENDS