Nathalie Burrows, Editor at EBnet
As I walked across the street to the Sandton Convention Centre for this year’s ASSA Convention, two delegates came hurrying past saying to each other: “They put him first on the agenda to make sure we all arrive on time”. I was intrigued, who could this mystery, don’t-be-late-for, speaker be?
If anything, it was an undersell. What a treat to hear Jeremy Gardiner’s (Ninety One) opening address: Weathering the Storm. Jeremy took the audience on a whirlwind tour of economics, politics, analytics and tactics. As we welcomed the start of the day that would mark the longest Government Shutdown in US history (36 days yesterday), Jeremy shared how it is severely impacting the US economy – by reducing real GDP growth in the fourth quarter by about 1.15% and potentially lowering overall GDP by 1 to 2% if it continues. It has disrupted essential services and left 1.4 million federal workers unpaid. This, coupled with some entertaining (because you simply can’t believe that the President of the Free World can talk like that) clips of the POTUS discussing all manner of things from tariffs to wars, has left money flowing out of the US into Emerging Markets, like South Africa. And based on our removal from the greylist, the steadiness of electricity supply, and improving GDP growth outlook, some analysts are predicting the Rand at R16,50/$ and a potential ratings upgrade from the Bank of America.
It was difficult not to be more than mildly optimistic about the state of our nation. Especially when images of our sports teams flashed across the screen. Jeremy shared that SA is looking better, but there is still lots of hard work to be done.
After this plenary session, the over 2 000 delegates were then given the choice of some great content in concurrent sessions running on various issues.
In the session on AI, efficiency, engagement and fairness, Louis Rossouw and Izahn Schönken (Gen Re) cautioned delegates of the dangers of using AI in pricing models for life (and other) insurance. Be mindful of discrimination by proxy when using AI and LLM’s was the message. If you think about the assumptions you might make about someone’s socio-economic status simply by inferring it from their postal code, you’ll start getting the idea of what they were talking about. Be warned: Hyper personalisation can leave some uninsurable.
The breakaway session on: Innovating mental wellness insurance: balancing risk, support and product design, facilitated by Keelan Moodley and Dr Moritz Drefs (Swiss Re), was a startling reminder of the impact of mental health conditions on the benefits we as an industry provide. Mental health incidents, particularly among younger generations, is on the rise in SA (from 16% in 2018 to 39% in 2023) and this will have an impact on product design. The latest in this conversation is the link between mental wellbeing and physical wellbeing.
Some fun facts, you are:
- 2.7 times more likely to develop depression if you’re pre-diabetic
- 3.7 times more likely to develop insulin resistance when newly diagnosed with schizophrenia
- 3.5 times more likely to have metabolic syndrome when newly diagnosed with bipolar disorder
And finally, 10 – 20 years is the average number of years of life lost for people with severe mental disorders, mostly due to preventable diseases. The implications for employers, insurers, households and medical schemes are jaw dropping. The call: to ideate around mental health in product design.
I also attended the breakaway session on the ASSA Climate Index. The ACI quantifies the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in South Africa, including floods, droughts, heatwaves and cold spells, relative to a 30-year baseline. Developed by actuaries together meteorologists, it provides a composite score aggregating data on temperature extremes, heavy rainfall and drought severity to guide risk management across sectors like insurance, healthcare and agriculture. The index is publicly accessible and aims to improve climate resilience by helping stakeholders understand and anticipate climate change impacts for better planning and mitigation. The ACI was well received by the actuarial fraternity, and certainly puts us right up there with global players who have the same type of measurements in place for their countries, territories and towns.
And my final point from Day 1 was the panel discussion on NHI. We are 30 years into democracy, and inequality is still the defining statement of our healthcare system. The discussions are long and the solutions complex, and will we even have the operational ability to fulfil the promises of an NHI? These are all key points on this very emotive, yet important, issue for all South Africans. NHI is not going away.
I’m not going to lie, actuaries can be fun. Watching them play virtual padel or race in F1 simulators in the exhibition hall gave me hope that maybe they’re normal people, just like me. Looking forward to Day 2.
ENDS
