Sanisha Packirisamy, Chief Economist, and Tshiamo Masike, Economist at Momentum Investments

On 28 February, the United States (US) and Israel launched coordinated large-scale strikes on Iranian territory, Washington under Operation Epic Fury, Jerusalem under Operation Roaring Lion. Targets included remnants of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure at Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow, ballistic missile production sites, air defences and senior military figures.

US and Israeli officials confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a strike on his Tehran compound, alongside several senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders. Iran swiftly retaliated, by launching ballistic missiles at Israel and at US-linked bases across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, with reported explosions in Dubai and Doha. Markets have yet to digest the full implications and trading in the week is likely to resume with a material geopolitical risk premium in play.

This is the second such campaign in eight months. The June 2025 strikes (Operation Rising Lion/Midnight Hammer) were described by President Donald Trump’s administration as having “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme. Yet the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimated that roughly 440 kilogrammes of uranium enriched to 60% remained, enough, if further processed, for up to ten nuclear explosive weapons. Much of it was believed to be stored in hardened underground facilities. In late February the IAEA reported a loss of “continuity of knowledge” over certain stockpiles, alongside renewed activity at key sites but with limited inspector access.

The immediate trigger for the renewed conflict was the collapse of indirect talks between the US and Iran in Geneva, mediated by Oman. Washington demanded full dismantlement of enrichment facilities, export of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, permanent zero-enrichment provisions and no sunset clauses. Tehran countered with phased dilution and sanctions relief. Consequently, talks broke down and within days, missiles flew.

Read Momentum Investments’ likely scenarios and investment impacts here.

ENDS